Now that the Seahawks are done (thanks to a kicker Penn State fans know as The Wedding Singer), and the Sonics blow, I suppose it's time for Seattle sports fans to start thinking about the upcoming baseball season. Yay! And how can you not be excited after this offseason? I mean, Miguel Batista is a Mariner! For three years!
You know what? That's all I really have to say right now.
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Sorry Bill
So, I was wrong about Miguel Batista's contract. And it looks like he is more excited than Vidro about joining the M's. I was holding out hope when I read the paper on Saturday, but I guess the Jose Vidro trade actually did happen.
The interesting part of the Batista article was Bavasi seeming to get defensive about his horrible moves:
Asked if he was concerned about negative fan reaction, general manager Bill Bavasi replied: "I'm the one dealing in the market. I know what the market is. I know what's available. The reaction is probably a whole lot different if I drag you with me for a month, and you see what it's like."
You think the Magic is getting to him? I'm sure that Bill Bavasi knows more about baseball than me. But, what do you think his response would be to Keith Law? Law, after all, worked in the Toronto front office, so I assume that he knows what he is talking about. Yet, his reaction to the trades for Horacio Ramirez and Vidro (scroll down for the Ramirez deal, you can't miss the headline) were only slightly less restrained than ours. And he writes for ESPN.com, so I would assume that he has to be a little more diplomatic than we do. Here are some of Mr. Law's choice comments (and you really should take the time to read the whole thing; they aren't very long) on the Vidro deal:
I have no idea what the Mariners were thinking. None. I had to take two ibuprofen tablets after I learned about the deal so that I could write this analysis.
And on trading Rafael Soriano:
The Braves picked up their probable future closer in exchange for a player whom they almost certainly would have non-tendered next week. The Mariners made themselves worse for no apparent reason other than fear.
This is an outside observer with no rooting interest.
I have a hard time believing that the M's couldn't have gotten more for Soriano than they did. The rumors surrounding Mike Gonzalez involve the Pirates getting Melky Cabrera, who, along with Phillip Hughes, had previously been considered off-limits for trades. Soriano is younger and better than Gonzalez. How did the M's only get Horacio Ramirez?
Maybe the market is that bad. I mean, what do I know? Still, I'm no economist, but if the "market" was only allowing Bavasi to get less than fair-market value for good prospects, well, then maybe it was a good time to stay out of the market. The Ramirez trade could be justified by reasoning that the M's needed a starting pitcher to throw the ball every fifth day. So, I suppose there is an argument to be made that Bavasi was in a position where he had to take less than full value to get a starter to fill out the rotation.
But, is trading for an expensive, injury-plagued contact hitter to DH out of the second spot in the line-up really going to make a noticeable improvement in the team's offense? I can see not wanting to rush pitchers up from the minors before they are ready to take the full-load of a major league season, but why not just call up Jeff Clement to DH instead of getting rid of a young, talented hitter who just can't seem to stay healthy and a young, hard throwing pitcher who needs to work on his control? Those seem like the players that you gamble on. Why gamble $16 million over the next two years on Jose Vidro staying healthy at age 33?
It has been a frustrating week to be a Seattle sports fan. The Seahawks fell apart and failed to clinch against the 49ers at home. (For those who are reading this immediately after coming out of a coma that began in 1991: Joe Montana doesn’t play for the 49ers anymore.) The Hornets' owner announced that they are going back to/staying in New Orleans, leaving Oklahoma City without an NBA franchise. One would think that since the M's are not playing that they could at least avoid depressing their fan base. I guess that would be too much to ask.
The interesting part of the Batista article was Bavasi seeming to get defensive about his horrible moves:
Asked if he was concerned about negative fan reaction, general manager Bill Bavasi replied: "I'm the one dealing in the market. I know what the market is. I know what's available. The reaction is probably a whole lot different if I drag you with me for a month, and you see what it's like."
You think the Magic is getting to him? I'm sure that Bill Bavasi knows more about baseball than me. But, what do you think his response would be to Keith Law? Law, after all, worked in the Toronto front office, so I assume that he knows what he is talking about. Yet, his reaction to the trades for Horacio Ramirez and Vidro (scroll down for the Ramirez deal, you can't miss the headline) were only slightly less restrained than ours. And he writes for ESPN.com, so I would assume that he has to be a little more diplomatic than we do. Here are some of Mr. Law's choice comments (and you really should take the time to read the whole thing; they aren't very long) on the Vidro deal:
I have no idea what the Mariners were thinking. None. I had to take two ibuprofen tablets after I learned about the deal so that I could write this analysis.
And on trading Rafael Soriano:
The Braves picked up their probable future closer in exchange for a player whom they almost certainly would have non-tendered next week. The Mariners made themselves worse for no apparent reason other than fear.
This is an outside observer with no rooting interest.
I have a hard time believing that the M's couldn't have gotten more for Soriano than they did. The rumors surrounding Mike Gonzalez involve the Pirates getting Melky Cabrera, who, along with Phillip Hughes, had previously been considered off-limits for trades. Soriano is younger and better than Gonzalez. How did the M's only get Horacio Ramirez?
Maybe the market is that bad. I mean, what do I know? Still, I'm no economist, but if the "market" was only allowing Bavasi to get less than fair-market value for good prospects, well, then maybe it was a good time to stay out of the market. The Ramirez trade could be justified by reasoning that the M's needed a starting pitcher to throw the ball every fifth day. So, I suppose there is an argument to be made that Bavasi was in a position where he had to take less than full value to get a starter to fill out the rotation.
But, is trading for an expensive, injury-plagued contact hitter to DH out of the second spot in the line-up really going to make a noticeable improvement in the team's offense? I can see not wanting to rush pitchers up from the minors before they are ready to take the full-load of a major league season, but why not just call up Jeff Clement to DH instead of getting rid of a young, talented hitter who just can't seem to stay healthy and a young, hard throwing pitcher who needs to work on his control? Those seem like the players that you gamble on. Why gamble $16 million over the next two years on Jose Vidro staying healthy at age 33?
It has been a frustrating week to be a Seattle sports fan. The Seahawks fell apart and failed to clinch against the 49ers at home. (For those who are reading this immediately after coming out of a coma that began in 1991: Joe Montana doesn’t play for the 49ers anymore.) The Hornets' owner announced that they are going back to/staying in New Orleans, leaving Oklahoma City without an NBA franchise. One would think that since the M's are not playing that they could at least avoid depressing their fan base. I guess that would be too much to ask.
Thursday, December 14, 2006
Farkin' Hell
So when I said this...
We'll see what Bavasi is made of.
I didn't think Bill Bavasi would proceed to make baseball moves that a learning-disabled ferret could make.
I was planning on my next post being a heartfelt goodbye to Gil Meche, but then shit happened.
The hardest part about living across the country from the teams (and parents-love you Mom and Dad!!) you love is not being surrounded by fellow fans and therefore not being able to share your joys and frustrations on a daily basis. My Mariners lunch box (complete with the old school trident) isn't noticed by my co-workers, and certainly the majority of people I run into in Baltimore don't give a rat's ass that the Mariners have gutted their future for mediocre players.
Mariner fans have seen some bad trades. Especially this combination of deals. But, at least those were in the middle of a pennant race. The M's won the AL West that year. And, they filled a need. I'm just not seeing what Bill Bavasi is doing this time around.
I think there are three kinds of bad trades in baseball. The first two are judged immediately, and the third is judged in the long term:
1. Giving away quality players to get lesser players in return.
2. Trading for a similar player that comes at a much higher price.
3. Giving away prospects for veterans to "win now", only to see the veterans not produce and the prospects go onto stardom.
The Soriano trade covers the first one. The Vidro trade may just cover all three of those. Seriously....
1. Snelling and Fruto combined are more valuable than Vidro. Snelling and Vidro have essentially the same issues (injuries), but Snelling is younger, cheaper, and better. Fruto, as Chris pointed, is not the type of arm you just give away. Oh wait, the Mariners do just give away those types of arms.
2. Even if you consider Snelling and Vidro about even, Snelling comes much cheaper.
3. Vidro is declining, and the Mariners aren't going to win the Sequim, Washington 12-year old All-Star tournament with the team they're throwing out there this year.
This f'ing sucks.
We'll see what Bavasi is made of.
I didn't think Bill Bavasi would proceed to make baseball moves that a learning-disabled ferret could make.
I was planning on my next post being a heartfelt goodbye to Gil Meche, but then shit happened.
The hardest part about living across the country from the teams (and parents-love you Mom and Dad!!) you love is not being surrounded by fellow fans and therefore not being able to share your joys and frustrations on a daily basis. My Mariners lunch box (complete with the old school trident) isn't noticed by my co-workers, and certainly the majority of people I run into in Baltimore don't give a rat's ass that the Mariners have gutted their future for mediocre players.
Mariner fans have seen some bad trades. Especially this combination of deals. But, at least those were in the middle of a pennant race. The M's won the AL West that year. And, they filled a need. I'm just not seeing what Bill Bavasi is doing this time around.
I think there are three kinds of bad trades in baseball. The first two are judged immediately, and the third is judged in the long term:
1. Giving away quality players to get lesser players in return.
2. Trading for a similar player that comes at a much higher price.
3. Giving away prospects for veterans to "win now", only to see the veterans not produce and the prospects go onto stardom.
The Soriano trade covers the first one. The Vidro trade may just cover all three of those. Seriously....
1. Snelling and Fruto combined are more valuable than Vidro. Snelling and Vidro have essentially the same issues (injuries), but Snelling is younger, cheaper, and better. Fruto, as Chris pointed, is not the type of arm you just give away. Oh wait, the Mariners do just give away those types of arms.
2. Even if you consider Snelling and Vidro about even, Snelling comes much cheaper.
3. Vidro is declining, and the Mariners aren't going to win the Sequim, Washington 12-year old All-Star tournament with the team they're throwing out there this year.
This f'ing sucks.
What's Goin On?
The text message I received from Mike this morning:
The M's are killing me with these moves
But, before I address the Mariners directly, allow me to comment again on Daisuke Matsuzaka. When I saw that he signed for six years and $52 million (and yes, as far as I can tell, that was the front page, above-the-fold story in the Boston Globe this morning), I did some quick calculations. Now, I used to teach third graders about estimating, so I am pretty well versed in the art of mental math, and it comes out to less than $9 million per season for Matsuzaka. Of course, the Red Sox will have shelled out around $103 million total for Matsuzaka, or an average of over $17 million per season, but he will see just over half of that. (When I opened the paper this morning, I saw that Thomas Boswell came to the same conclusion: Scott Boros might actually be in the right this time.)
This made me immediately think: Wait a second, didn't the Mariners just sign Miguel Batista for 3 years and $27 million? And doesn't that come out to an even $9 million per year? And doesn't that mean that after all of the hype around Matsuzaka that Miguel Batista will be cashing bigger paychecks for the next three years? And isn't Batista 36? At least he doesn't pitch with his birth certificate.
And, then: Wait a second, didn't Gil freaking Meche just sign with the Kansas City freaking Royals for more money and fewer years? So, five years from now, Gil Meche will have made more money than Daisuke Matsuzaka and have the freedom to sign with any team he wants to the following year?
Something is obviously wrong with this whole posting system when the Seibu Lions just got a check for more than triple their entire payroll. Workers of the world unite!
Anyway, back to the Mariners. Welcome Jose Vidro. I actually heard about this trade last night on the local news here in D.C. George Michael reported on a trade that the Nationals had just completed with the Seattle Mariners, and did not at any point during the report identify the two minor leaguers that the Nationals had obtained. He closed his report thusly:
So, the Nationals have traded Jose Vidro (with an inflection that indicated that he equated Vidro's worth as somewhere in the range of Honus Wagner - a living Honus Wagner that is) for two minor leaguers that you will never hear of . . .
At this point in his sentence, it seemed to dawn on Mr. Michael that these two guys were going to play for the baseball team that his network covers on a regular basis, so he added:
until they become huge stars in the major leagues. And it will happen, but it won't happen in my lifetime.
It reminded me of my mother complaining about George Michael's anti-west coast bias in his national "Sports Machine" broadcasts when I was young. (But, if you are ever in the DC viewing area, don't miss the local NBC news on George's account - though, to be fair, I actually think he is pretty good most of the time - because Jim Vance of NBC 4 is probably among the top five news disseminators of all time. He is really that good.)
So I checked this morning, and it turns out that the Nats will be getting Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto. I guess getting rid of Snelling could be justified: he can't stay healthy, and the M's have a glut in the outfield. And, it's not like the M's just gave away an electric bullpen arm. Why would they want to hold on to a pitcher like Fruto and his 55/21 K/BB ratio at AAA last year and his 9.9 K/9 IP combined between AAA and the show who is only 22 and now has some major league experience under his belt and has improved in his second year at each level through the minors? Dime a dozen.
Well, at least they got something good in return. What did they get? I guess that depends on who you ask. ESPN.com suggests that they got a 2B and that Jose Lopez would move to 3B, allowing the M's to trade away Adrian Beltre. The P-I notes that Vidro played some at 1B last year. So, are they implying that Sexson gets traded? Finally, the Seattle Times lets us know that the only reason that Vidro waived his no-trade clause is because he was promised to be able to DH so he could rest his oft-injured legs. Nothing ironic there? You traded for a guy by convincing him that he will have a chance to rest the chronic injuries that have put his career in decline? And you agreed to take on the bulk of his salary to get it done too? Bavasi should be a hostage negotiator.
At least Jose is excited about his new team. Here is what he had to say in today's Washington Post:
I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to go to the American League and play for a team that has a pretty good shot. They have a legitimate lineup, and they're going to sign some pitchers. It's looking very good.
I wonder if he thinks the M's have a really great sense of humor too. "Pretty good shot" at what? Do you think by "legitimate" he meant that they had a good chance of finding nine players to fill each of the spots in the lineup?
You think he got a promise that Miguel Batista and Horacio Ramirez weren't the end of the road? Or, maybe he just forgot that the M's had already signed a pitcher. I wish I could.
The M's are killing me with these moves
But, before I address the Mariners directly, allow me to comment again on Daisuke Matsuzaka. When I saw that he signed for six years and $52 million (and yes, as far as I can tell, that was the front page, above-the-fold story in the Boston Globe this morning), I did some quick calculations. Now, I used to teach third graders about estimating, so I am pretty well versed in the art of mental math, and it comes out to less than $9 million per season for Matsuzaka. Of course, the Red Sox will have shelled out around $103 million total for Matsuzaka, or an average of over $17 million per season, but he will see just over half of that. (When I opened the paper this morning, I saw that Thomas Boswell came to the same conclusion: Scott Boros might actually be in the right this time.)
This made me immediately think: Wait a second, didn't the Mariners just sign Miguel Batista for 3 years and $27 million? And doesn't that come out to an even $9 million per year? And doesn't that mean that after all of the hype around Matsuzaka that Miguel Batista will be cashing bigger paychecks for the next three years? And isn't Batista 36? At least he doesn't pitch with his birth certificate.
And, then: Wait a second, didn't Gil freaking Meche just sign with the Kansas City freaking Royals for more money and fewer years? So, five years from now, Gil Meche will have made more money than Daisuke Matsuzaka and have the freedom to sign with any team he wants to the following year?
Something is obviously wrong with this whole posting system when the Seibu Lions just got a check for more than triple their entire payroll. Workers of the world unite!
Anyway, back to the Mariners. Welcome Jose Vidro. I actually heard about this trade last night on the local news here in D.C. George Michael reported on a trade that the Nationals had just completed with the Seattle Mariners, and did not at any point during the report identify the two minor leaguers that the Nationals had obtained. He closed his report thusly:
So, the Nationals have traded Jose Vidro (with an inflection that indicated that he equated Vidro's worth as somewhere in the range of Honus Wagner - a living Honus Wagner that is) for two minor leaguers that you will never hear of . . .
At this point in his sentence, it seemed to dawn on Mr. Michael that these two guys were going to play for the baseball team that his network covers on a regular basis, so he added:
until they become huge stars in the major leagues. And it will happen, but it won't happen in my lifetime.
It reminded me of my mother complaining about George Michael's anti-west coast bias in his national "Sports Machine" broadcasts when I was young. (But, if you are ever in the DC viewing area, don't miss the local NBC news on George's account - though, to be fair, I actually think he is pretty good most of the time - because Jim Vance of NBC 4 is probably among the top five news disseminators of all time. He is really that good.)
So I checked this morning, and it turns out that the Nats will be getting Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto. I guess getting rid of Snelling could be justified: he can't stay healthy, and the M's have a glut in the outfield. And, it's not like the M's just gave away an electric bullpen arm. Why would they want to hold on to a pitcher like Fruto and his 55/21 K/BB ratio at AAA last year and his 9.9 K/9 IP combined between AAA and the show who is only 22 and now has some major league experience under his belt and has improved in his second year at each level through the minors? Dime a dozen.
Well, at least they got something good in return. What did they get? I guess that depends on who you ask. ESPN.com suggests that they got a 2B and that Jose Lopez would move to 3B, allowing the M's to trade away Adrian Beltre. The P-I notes that Vidro played some at 1B last year. So, are they implying that Sexson gets traded? Finally, the Seattle Times lets us know that the only reason that Vidro waived his no-trade clause is because he was promised to be able to DH so he could rest his oft-injured legs. Nothing ironic there? You traded for a guy by convincing him that he will have a chance to rest the chronic injuries that have put his career in decline? And you agreed to take on the bulk of his salary to get it done too? Bavasi should be a hostage negotiator.
At least Jose is excited about his new team. Here is what he had to say in today's Washington Post:
I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to go to the American League and play for a team that has a pretty good shot. They have a legitimate lineup, and they're going to sign some pitchers. It's looking very good.
I wonder if he thinks the M's have a really great sense of humor too. "Pretty good shot" at what? Do you think by "legitimate" he meant that they had a good chance of finding nine players to fill each of the spots in the lineup?
You think he got a promise that Miguel Batista and Horacio Ramirez weren't the end of the road? Or, maybe he just forgot that the M's had already signed a pitcher. I wish I could.
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
No Schmidt Sherlock
Or, as Fox put it-Schmidt happens.
So, it's Schmidt to the Dodgers. Interesting. Extremely interesting.
I wasn't a huge fan of signing Schmidt, but the M's absolutely have to bring in at least one quality pitcher. But, who? Zito has already been offered 6 years by Texas. No reason at all to give him 6 years. I don't even know if Johan Santana is worth a 6-year contract. That leaves Ted Lilly, who I like. Kinda. But, I worry about what he's going to demand on the market, especially now that Schmidt is gone. Meche? Um, no. Rumors have him gettin $10 million. Sorry, Gil, you know have a special place in my heart, but it's time to let go.
I commented on this in the other post, but I'm a huge fan of this this rumor. Essentially, it's Sexson and Soriano for Tim Hudson and Adam Laroche. Absolutely love that deal. Laroche is a good lefty power bat, and Hudson is not Gil Meche. If that goes down, the rotation would be:
Hudson
Felix
Washburn
Warm Body
Warm Body
Warm bodies = Woods, Baek, etc. I like the John Thomson idea as the #4 guy. That would be a pretty solid rotation. Not 95-win solid, but better than last year.
We'll see what Bavasi is made of.
So, it's Schmidt to the Dodgers. Interesting. Extremely interesting.
I wasn't a huge fan of signing Schmidt, but the M's absolutely have to bring in at least one quality pitcher. But, who? Zito has already been offered 6 years by Texas. No reason at all to give him 6 years. I don't even know if Johan Santana is worth a 6-year contract. That leaves Ted Lilly, who I like. Kinda. But, I worry about what he's going to demand on the market, especially now that Schmidt is gone. Meche? Um, no. Rumors have him gettin $10 million. Sorry, Gil, you know have a special place in my heart, but it's time to let go.
I commented on this in the other post, but I'm a huge fan of this this rumor. Essentially, it's Sexson and Soriano for Tim Hudson and Adam Laroche. Absolutely love that deal. Laroche is a good lefty power bat, and Hudson is not Gil Meche. If that goes down, the rotation would be:
Hudson
Felix
Washburn
Warm Body
Warm Body
Warm bodies = Woods, Baek, etc. I like the John Thomson idea as the #4 guy. That would be a pretty solid rotation. Not 95-win solid, but better than last year.
We'll see what Bavasi is made of.
Monday, December 04, 2006
Things happen on weekends
Especially when you don't have access to the Internet. Apparantly the Mariners have signed Jose Guillen. I like the signing for a few reasons I'll get into, but it inspired one of the funniest things I've read in a while from Jeff at Lookout Landing:
But, I do like the signing because it's low-risk and it shows Bavasi isn't getting sucked in by the this winter's insanity. Of course, there are plenty of crappy deals to be given to crappy players. Guillen can be flat-out nasty (both the good and bad) at times, but if he isn't (or is, depending on your definition), it's only a one year deal and the M's aren't stuck with him.
It looks like John Thomson is going to be a Mariner too. Again, I like the move for basically the same reasons as the Guillen signing. If the only crazy move the M's make this offseason is Jason Schmidt, I'll be fine with that. I can handle waiting until 2008 or 2009 to be competitive if it means avoiding this winter's insanity.
MLB.com owes me some sort of commission for the amount of links I just provided to their website.
I imagine a party with Jose Guillen involves Tecate by the gallon, militant graffiti, and at least one guy getting stabbed.
But, I do like the signing because it's low-risk and it shows Bavasi isn't getting sucked in by the this winter's insanity. Of course, there are plenty of crappy deals to be given to crappy players. Guillen can be flat-out nasty (both the good and bad) at times, but if he isn't (or is, depending on your definition), it's only a one year deal and the M's aren't stuck with him.
It looks like John Thomson is going to be a Mariner too. Again, I like the move for basically the same reasons as the Guillen signing. If the only crazy move the M's make this offseason is Jason Schmidt, I'll be fine with that. I can handle waiting until 2008 or 2009 to be competitive if it means avoiding this winter's insanity.
MLB.com owes me some sort of commission for the amount of links I just provided to their website.
Friday, November 17, 2006
New World Order
Keeping with the 80s-Republican-presidents-theme: remember the first Bush? He was fond of speaking of a new world order. I remember it mostly from samples on the second album released by the rapper Paris, an album that was more than slightly critical of Mr. Bush and his policies. (To avoid having Alberto Gonzales shut down the Magic, I'll skip a link to that album, and merely say that its title song and cover art spawned an investigation by the secret service. It was an interesting moment in time where crazy militia freaks hiding in the hills of Oregon and hip hop heads from the inner city had a common enemy in the new world order conspiracy theory.) Well, it seems that Theo Epstein and those poor, down-trodden Boston Red Sox who just can't keep up with the Yankees' payroll have ushered in a new world order in baseball.
The financial side of this new world order - and its ripple effect - look a lot like the conspiracy theory. I mean, $51.1 million just to talk to a pitcher? While I liked Matsuzaka, I have to agree that the numbers don't add up here. (Though the chart in the first linked article - showing the pitching staff that you could have for less than $51.1 - is really misleading. Most of the players listed there are not eligible for free agency, and no team could get them for anything near their current salaries on the open market.)
But, let's talk about the "world" part for a minute. With Tampa Bay picking up a star 3B from Japan (nevermind that the last thing the Devil Rays need is more bats to squeeze into their lineup), and the M's possibly among the teams looking for a cheaper pitching alternative from the Far East, baseball is starting to look more and more like a truly global sport. And Thomas Boswell agrees. Is it bad if MLB becomes to baseball what Europe is to soccer: stealing the best talent from everywhere else in the world for their professional leagues? Would it be possible to ever have competing leagues in different countries, to be a global sport more in the mold of soccer than basketball? Why can't the MLB owners stop the season for two weeks to let the best players in the world compete in the World Baseball Classic when they are in shape, like the NHL does with the Olympics? Besides being totally awesome - it really seems like it would would be in MLB's best financial/public-relations interests to make baseball appear to be a globally shared sport, rather than an imperialistic, American one.
Another question: Does Bavasi think anyone believes him when he says that teams are calling to see if he would be willing to deal Beltre? I'm sure they could get rid of him if they were willing to pay a big chunk of his salary, but I have never really understood the point of paying players that play for other teams.
I don't like signing Jason Schmidt, at least not for more than one year. I'd rather get Ted Lilly for less money and hope that he breaks out than hope that Schmidt somehow becomes less injury prone as he gets older.
Okay. Enough out of me. What do you all think?
The financial side of this new world order - and its ripple effect - look a lot like the conspiracy theory. I mean, $51.1 million just to talk to a pitcher? While I liked Matsuzaka, I have to agree that the numbers don't add up here. (Though the chart in the first linked article - showing the pitching staff that you could have for less than $51.1 - is really misleading. Most of the players listed there are not eligible for free agency, and no team could get them for anything near their current salaries on the open market.)
But, let's talk about the "world" part for a minute. With Tampa Bay picking up a star 3B from Japan (nevermind that the last thing the Devil Rays need is more bats to squeeze into their lineup), and the M's possibly among the teams looking for a cheaper pitching alternative from the Far East, baseball is starting to look more and more like a truly global sport. And Thomas Boswell agrees. Is it bad if MLB becomes to baseball what Europe is to soccer: stealing the best talent from everywhere else in the world for their professional leagues? Would it be possible to ever have competing leagues in different countries, to be a global sport more in the mold of soccer than basketball? Why can't the MLB owners stop the season for two weeks to let the best players in the world compete in the World Baseball Classic when they are in shape, like the NHL does with the Olympics? Besides being totally awesome - it really seems like it would would be in MLB's best financial/public-relations interests to make baseball appear to be a globally shared sport, rather than an imperialistic, American one.
Another question: Does Bavasi think anyone believes him when he says that teams are calling to see if he would be willing to deal Beltre? I'm sure they could get rid of him if they were willing to pay a big chunk of his salary, but I have never really understood the point of paying players that play for other teams.
I don't like signing Jason Schmidt, at least not for more than one year. I'd rather get Ted Lilly for less money and hope that he breaks out than hope that Schmidt somehow becomes less injury prone as he gets older.
Okay. Enough out of me. What do you all think?
Monday, November 06, 2006
Well....
Remember Ronald Reagan ? Remember how he used to say "Well.." in his very grandfather-like voice when he answered questions? When I was 5 years old, it seemed kind of comforting. Of course, I didn't know what trickle down economics involved then.
Aaaanyway, that's what I would say if I were Ronald Reagan if someone were to ask me what I thought of the M's opting to not pursue Daisuke Matsuzaka. "Well...ok then." Of course my initial reaction was actually "You cheap bastards." But, I'm not sure that it's a terrible thing now. It sounds like Matsuzaka is a bit of an, um, "well", arrogant ass. In fact, Dr. Deteco compared him to A-Rod.
So, moving on then. There are lots of other free agent options. Clearly, bringing in a pitcher or seven needs to be the number one priority this winter. Unless of course we're okay with a rotation of Felix, Washburn, Baek, and....."well", there you go. Take a look at this list and decide who you like. Now, I don't know how many of those guys have club or player options for 2007. But, at first glance, the guy who catches my eye (like a pie in the sky) is Ted Lilly. The big names are Schimidt and Zito, but the contract that those guys are going to demand may be absurd. They're both fine and dandy, but Lilly may come cheaper. Plus, Lilly had better K/9 and K/BB than both of them.
By the way, this site is way better for looking at free agents. I love Google.
So, I'm done with this post now. I could say more but it's been a long time and the Magic faithful are getting restless. Go get Ted Lilly!
Aaaanyway, that's what I would say if I were Ronald Reagan if someone were to ask me what I thought of the M's opting to not pursue Daisuke Matsuzaka. "Well...ok then." Of course my initial reaction was actually "You cheap bastards." But, I'm not sure that it's a terrible thing now. It sounds like Matsuzaka is a bit of an, um, "well", arrogant ass. In fact, Dr. Deteco compared him to A-Rod.
So, moving on then. There are lots of other free agent options. Clearly, bringing in a pitcher or seven needs to be the number one priority this winter. Unless of course we're okay with a rotation of Felix, Washburn, Baek, and....."well", there you go. Take a look at this list and decide who you like. Now, I don't know how many of those guys have club or player options for 2007. But, at first glance, the guy who catches my eye (like a pie in the sky) is Ted Lilly. The big names are Schimidt and Zito, but the contract that those guys are going to demand may be absurd. They're both fine and dandy, but Lilly may come cheaper. Plus, Lilly had better K/9 and K/BB than both of them.
By the way, this site is way better for looking at free agents. I love Google.
So, I'm done with this post now. I could say more but it's been a long time and the Magic faithful are getting restless. Go get Ted Lilly!
Thursday, October 12, 2006
Heat up the Stove
Wow. When the last post is about good feelings engendered by the Ben Broussard trade, clearly things have fallen off. So, let me try to get some discussion going with a little M's news round-up.
(There was some theme music playing in my head when I typed "news round-up." I think that it might have sounded something like the intro music for Weekend Update on Saturday Night Live. Further, but related, aside: Did anyone watch 30 Rock? I didn't, but I wanted to. What are our thoughts on Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip? I think it's really warming-up, but I wish they had just put Sports Night back on the air, instead of trying to re-do it.)
Breaking news today: The P-I reports that the M's have cut Jesse Foppert. It would have been nice if he had panned out, but it doesn't seem like he is going to live up to the pre-injury hype. I like the little dig in the article about Randy Winn. I still can't understand why everyone was so keen on letting him go.
Yesterday, Art Theil reminded us that the M's need to build from within, rather than spending money on overpriced, homophobic-dinosaur-hating veterans who missed the entire previous season with injury. (Okay, Richie wasn't really a bad signing, but his deal is still symbolic of knee-jerk, throw-money-at-the-problem thinking.) He points out, correctly, that even though we like to think that the Yankees buy championships, when they were winning it was with home-grown talent and shrewd spending. Now that they have really tried to break the bank, they haven't won a World Series for six years. And, speaking of the devils - John Hickey explains to us how cost-effective it would be to bring back A-Rod. I don't think this article was even a joke.
The biggest news for M's fans has to be that the Seibu Lions have decided to "post" World Baseball Classic MVP pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. John Hickey wonders whether the M's can/will hang with the big spenders when it comes time to place a bid. I hope so. The previous link only had Daisuke's stats through 2005, but this season he was possibly even more dominating. Over the last four years he has struck out 768 batters, while only walking 188, over 741 innings. That's a 4-to-1 K/BB ratio and 9.32 Ks/9 IP. He has given up 602 hits, for a WHIP of 1.06, and has an ERA of 2.51. To put all of that in perspective, Johan Santana's numbers over the same period look like: 4.75-to-1 K/BB ratio, 9.70 Ks/9 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 2.81 ERA. So, Santana is still the best pitcher on the planet, but Daisuke compares pretty favorably. (Note: The Pacific League season is shorter than MLB's, so Santana's absolute numbers are significantly higher, that's why I used the ratios. And, 2003, the first season in the analysis, wasn't a full season as a starter for Santana.)
So, how about Daisuke Matsuzaka as the first discussion of the off-season. Mike, Trav - let's see some new posts in reply; loyal readers - let's see some discussion in the comments. What do you think of him? How far should the M's go to get him on the mound in Seattle next season?
(There was some theme music playing in my head when I typed "news round-up." I think that it might have sounded something like the intro music for Weekend Update on Saturday Night Live. Further, but related, aside: Did anyone watch 30 Rock? I didn't, but I wanted to. What are our thoughts on Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip? I think it's really warming-up, but I wish they had just put Sports Night back on the air, instead of trying to re-do it.)
Breaking news today: The P-I reports that the M's have cut Jesse Foppert. It would have been nice if he had panned out, but it doesn't seem like he is going to live up to the pre-injury hype. I like the little dig in the article about Randy Winn. I still can't understand why everyone was so keen on letting him go.
Yesterday, Art Theil reminded us that the M's need to build from within, rather than spending money on overpriced, homophobic-dinosaur-hating veterans who missed the entire previous season with injury. (Okay, Richie wasn't really a bad signing, but his deal is still symbolic of knee-jerk, throw-money-at-the-problem thinking.) He points out, correctly, that even though we like to think that the Yankees buy championships, when they were winning it was with home-grown talent and shrewd spending. Now that they have really tried to break the bank, they haven't won a World Series for six years. And, speaking of the devils - John Hickey explains to us how cost-effective it would be to bring back A-Rod. I don't think this article was even a joke.
The biggest news for M's fans has to be that the Seibu Lions have decided to "post" World Baseball Classic MVP pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. John Hickey wonders whether the M's can/will hang with the big spenders when it comes time to place a bid. I hope so. The previous link only had Daisuke's stats through 2005, but this season he was possibly even more dominating. Over the last four years he has struck out 768 batters, while only walking 188, over 741 innings. That's a 4-to-1 K/BB ratio and 9.32 Ks/9 IP. He has given up 602 hits, for a WHIP of 1.06, and has an ERA of 2.51. To put all of that in perspective, Johan Santana's numbers over the same period look like: 4.75-to-1 K/BB ratio, 9.70 Ks/9 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 2.81 ERA. So, Santana is still the best pitcher on the planet, but Daisuke compares pretty favorably. (Note: The Pacific League season is shorter than MLB's, so Santana's absolute numbers are significantly higher, that's why I used the ratios. And, 2003, the first season in the analysis, wasn't a full season as a starter for Santana.)
So, how about Daisuke Matsuzaka as the first discussion of the off-season. Mike, Trav - let's see some new posts in reply; loyal readers - let's see some discussion in the comments. What do you think of him? How far should the M's go to get him on the mound in Seattle next season?
Thursday, July 27, 2006
Good feelings
I feel good about a few things:
1) Survival 6-6 against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. Winners of the last 2 series. And....3 games back. The Mariners have survived, in my opinion, the toughest stretch of games they will encounter in the 2nd half.
2) Changes
The Ben Broussard trade is good because
a) The M's got a solid lefty bat without giving up too much
b) Carl Everett is gone
c) A platoon with Eduardo Perez at DH is sweet
d) All of the above
3) Hope
Three games back. I don't care that they're in last place or 3 games under .500. I don't care that if they were in any other division in the AL, they'd be out if right now. All I know is the Mariners have weathered the storm(s) of Guardado, Everett, and Felix sucking and are still in it. Imagine if the Mariners had started with this exact team from Opening Day. Do you think they'd be three games better? I do. The difference between Putz and Guardado alone could make that up.
I'm still cautiously optimistic, becuase one more lousy week or two can pretty much sink the Mariners for the season. But, one more fantastic week or two can put them in first place. And even if they don't end up making the playoffs, think about what the experience of a pennant race could mean for Lopez, Betancourt, Felix, Jones, etc. This could be a fun two months M's fans. Stay tuned.
1) Survival 6-6 against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. Winners of the last 2 series. And....3 games back. The Mariners have survived, in my opinion, the toughest stretch of games they will encounter in the 2nd half.
2) Changes
The Ben Broussard trade is good because
a) The M's got a solid lefty bat without giving up too much
b) Carl Everett is gone
c) A platoon with Eduardo Perez at DH is sweet
d) All of the above
3) Hope
Three games back. I don't care that they're in last place or 3 games under .500. I don't care that if they were in any other division in the AL, they'd be out if right now. All I know is the Mariners have weathered the storm(s) of Guardado, Everett, and Felix sucking and are still in it. Imagine if the Mariners had started with this exact team from Opening Day. Do you think they'd be three games better? I do. The difference between Putz and Guardado alone could make that up.
I'm still cautiously optimistic, becuase one more lousy week or two can pretty much sink the Mariners for the season. But, one more fantastic week or two can put them in first place. And even if they don't end up making the playoffs, think about what the experience of a pennant race could mean for Lopez, Betancourt, Felix, Jones, etc. This could be a fun two months M's fans. Stay tuned.
Misc.
Rob Neyer has an interesting piece today that supports Mike's don't-trade-Adam-Jones-for-Soriano plan. His conclusion is that "deadline deals" rarely make a difference, so trading a top prospect for a pennant push rental is a bad gamble. (See: Varitek, Jason; Lowe, Derek.) Plus, with Everett gone, and the former Cleveland platoon in place with Ben Broussard on board - the offense is actually not too bad.
Page 2 has a great story on baseball card memories. My favorite baseball card of all time might be a Ken Griffey, Jr. Donruss Diamond King. I don't remember the year. I do remember that Mr. Griffey himself autographed it after batting practice at the Kingdome. So, it must have been 1990, maybe '91 at the latest. Any later and there was no way that Griff was signing autographs at games.
Page 2 has a great story on baseball card memories. My favorite baseball card of all time might be a Ken Griffey, Jr. Donruss Diamond King. I don't remember the year. I do remember that Mr. Griffey himself autographed it after batting practice at the Kingdome. So, it must have been 1990, maybe '91 at the latest. Any later and there was no way that Griff was signing autographs at games.
Thursday, July 20, 2006
I have a funny feeling...
The Mariners are going to win the AL West.
Seriously. I don't know why. And I'm not typically a blue and teal glasses wearing homer.
That is all.
Also-please don't trade Adam Jones to get Alfonso Soriano.
Seriously. I don't know why. And I'm not typically a blue and teal glasses wearing homer.
That is all.
Also-please don't trade Adam Jones to get Alfonso Soriano.
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Fairweatherness
EDIT: I apologize for the post below. I read it over this morning and was like, "Damn yo, you be sounding like you think your better than people." Which I don't. I'm just mad about the Sonics. So, sorry Seattle fans.
Yes yes. We're still alive. Although the chances people are still coming here are pretty slim, but whatever.
I'm done stressing about the 2006 Mariners. I came in thinking an 80-82 season with hope for 2007 would be nice, and that can still happen. So, at this point, I couldn't care less about wins and losses. This way if they do end up making it to the postseason, it will make me do lots of smiling. And if they don't, well I'm not expecting them to anyway.
Earlier today I was feeling disappointed in myself. I've always been a "stick with the team no matter what" kind of fan. I've always despised fairweather fans. And growing up in Seattle is like being in some sort of fairweather fan breeding ground (more on that later). But, I'm not giving up on the team. I'm still excited about the future with Betancourt, Lopez, Felix, Soriano, and now Adam Jones. And how about Mark Lowe? He's filthy. I do believe the future is bright for the Mariners. Whether it's 2007 or later, they'll be contenders again. And, more losses could mean less Mike Hargrove. It's just hard to get excited about this team right now, and I'm not going to lose hair or years off my life stressing over every win and loss. It's just not worth it. My loyalty isn't any weaker, it's just gained a little bit of perspective.
There is something happening in Seattle does have me worked up. I'm sure we all know that the Sonics could be moving to Oklahoma City. Now, nothing's official yet so I'm going to hope for the best. But, the fact that the Sonics might move isn't what has me pissed off. It's the fact that Seattle "fans" aren't going to care.
Things aren't as bad as they used to be, but Seattle is the defintion of a fairweather sports town. Now, that's not necessarily a bad thing. Should we admire Philadelphia or Chicago for their insane fan bases? Maybe not. But what irks me is that I get the impression that most sports fans in Seattle won't think twice about the Sonics moving. Why? Because they had one bad season. So they must suck. So that means people don't pay a bit of attention to them. Nevermind the fact that they were the first pro franchise in Seattle. Or that they're the only team with a championship. Or that they've had BY FAR the most success of any of the major pro teams in Seattle. Or that they could be pretty damn good next year. I'm not in Seattle, but I've had enough experience with Seattle fans to know what they're like. Can we review the fact that the Sonics had ONE BAD SEASON?! They had one of the most exciting seasons in years in 2004-2005.
Reading some of these comments only drove the point home for me. For whatever reason, Seattle fans can't walk and chew gum at the same time. Right now, the Seahawks are the gum. They're the team having the most success. Of course they are going to be the #1 draw in town. That'd be true in any town. But, take yourself back six or eight years. If this OK City thing was going down then, I'm going to assume a lot more people would be upset about it. And the Seahawks were barely being acknowledged. I will say that I've been impressed with the level of loyalty fans have shown the Mariners. Maybe it's Safeco, maybe it's the Hall of Famers that have played for the M's over the last 15 years, maybe it's the M's marketing department, or maybe Seattle is a halfway decent baseball town.
I realize I'm rambling so I'm going to stop. I think seeing people say things like "good riddance" on Lookout Landing sparked something in me. I could be dead wrong. Maybe the fans of Seattle will come out in droves and fight this thing. But, unless the Sonics do some winning this year, I just don't see it happening.
Go Mariners.
Yes yes. We're still alive. Although the chances people are still coming here are pretty slim, but whatever.
I'm done stressing about the 2006 Mariners. I came in thinking an 80-82 season with hope for 2007 would be nice, and that can still happen. So, at this point, I couldn't care less about wins and losses. This way if they do end up making it to the postseason, it will make me do lots of smiling. And if they don't, well I'm not expecting them to anyway.
Earlier today I was feeling disappointed in myself. I've always been a "stick with the team no matter what" kind of fan. I've always despised fairweather fans. And growing up in Seattle is like being in some sort of fairweather fan breeding ground (more on that later). But, I'm not giving up on the team. I'm still excited about the future with Betancourt, Lopez, Felix, Soriano, and now Adam Jones. And how about Mark Lowe? He's filthy. I do believe the future is bright for the Mariners. Whether it's 2007 or later, they'll be contenders again. And, more losses could mean less Mike Hargrove. It's just hard to get excited about this team right now, and I'm not going to lose hair or years off my life stressing over every win and loss. It's just not worth it. My loyalty isn't any weaker, it's just gained a little bit of perspective.
There is something happening in Seattle does have me worked up. I'm sure we all know that the Sonics could be moving to Oklahoma City. Now, nothing's official yet so I'm going to hope for the best. But, the fact that the Sonics might move isn't what has me pissed off. It's the fact that Seattle "fans" aren't going to care.
Things aren't as bad as they used to be, but Seattle is the defintion of a fairweather sports town. Now, that's not necessarily a bad thing. Should we admire Philadelphia or Chicago for their insane fan bases? Maybe not. But what irks me is that I get the impression that most sports fans in Seattle won't think twice about the Sonics moving. Why? Because they had one bad season. So they must suck. So that means people don't pay a bit of attention to them. Nevermind the fact that they were the first pro franchise in Seattle. Or that they're the only team with a championship. Or that they've had BY FAR the most success of any of the major pro teams in Seattle. Or that they could be pretty damn good next year. I'm not in Seattle, but I've had enough experience with Seattle fans to know what they're like. Can we review the fact that the Sonics had ONE BAD SEASON?! They had one of the most exciting seasons in years in 2004-2005.
Reading some of these comments only drove the point home for me. For whatever reason, Seattle fans can't walk and chew gum at the same time. Right now, the Seahawks are the gum. They're the team having the most success. Of course they are going to be the #1 draw in town. That'd be true in any town. But, take yourself back six or eight years. If this OK City thing was going down then, I'm going to assume a lot more people would be upset about it. And the Seahawks were barely being acknowledged. I will say that I've been impressed with the level of loyalty fans have shown the Mariners. Maybe it's Safeco, maybe it's the Hall of Famers that have played for the M's over the last 15 years, maybe it's the M's marketing department, or maybe Seattle is a halfway decent baseball town.
I realize I'm rambling so I'm going to stop. I think seeing people say things like "good riddance" on Lookout Landing sparked something in me. I could be dead wrong. Maybe the fans of Seattle will come out in droves and fight this thing. But, unless the Sonics do some winning this year, I just don't see it happening.
Go Mariners.
Thursday, July 06, 2006
What a difference a sweep makes.
Crap crap crap. Why did I get my hopes up? Dave at USSMariner wants me to calm down, but the last three days of Mariner baseball have been hard to deal with. It's not just that the Angels swept us. They beat us down. The recent hotness and subsequent happy feelings have gone straight down the crapper and I'm finding myself hating them again.
I had a funny feeling this might happen. Despite their good play, I was worried when I looked at the M's July schedule. Detroit, Toronto, Boston, Cleveland, and the Yankees. That was a stretch that was certainly going to test the Mariners. But, based on a recent history of ownage, I thought they could at least take 2 of 3 from the Angels. Guess not.
To make matters worse, Meche and Everett are bitching. Seriously Carl? You and your .233/.308/.372 line AS A DH????????? Where does he get off? Meche might have a better case since he's actually been halfway decent this year, but what a joke. Do you think Lou would have put up with that crap? He would have punced Everett in the face and farted on him.
Am I overreacting? Of course. Isn't that what being a fan is all about? They're still only 3 back and taking the series against Detroit could be a fantastic way to enter the break.
I had a funny feeling this might happen. Despite their good play, I was worried when I looked at the M's July schedule. Detroit, Toronto, Boston, Cleveland, and the Yankees. That was a stretch that was certainly going to test the Mariners. But, based on a recent history of ownage, I thought they could at least take 2 of 3 from the Angels. Guess not.
To make matters worse, Meche and Everett are bitching. Seriously Carl? You and your .233/.308/.372 line AS A DH????????? Where does he get off? Meche might have a better case since he's actually been halfway decent this year, but what a joke. Do you think Lou would have put up with that crap? He would have punced Everett in the face and farted on him.
Am I overreacting? Of course. Isn't that what being a fan is all about? They're still only 3 back and taking the series against Detroit could be a fantastic way to enter the break.
Monday, July 03, 2006
one game
So the mariner’s are one game out of first........................... Did I really just write that. It has to be a typo right? Nope it’s true one game out. And lets be honest they were in every game over the weekend the breaks just didn’t go their way. It happens. This is a big series here against the angels. If they can take 2 or dare I say sweep that might be a nail in the coffin for the angels and one less team to worry about.
I think with the Reed injury this is going to force the M's hand. They have to make a move for a outfield bat. Mike and I both want Carlos Lee as much as we want Jessica Alba. This guy would be perfect. I think Ichiro has to move to Center and you slam Raul and Lee on the corners. You can then bring up Chris "Doyle" Snelling to ether DH or play a corner spot and give Everett his walking papers. This is a division the M's can win and I think they know that so lets hold our breath and hope they make the right move.
I’m fired up for this week it could be a really good one for M's Fans!
Singles night at the safe..........Ladies Holler at me
I think with the Reed injury this is going to force the M's hand. They have to make a move for a outfield bat. Mike and I both want Carlos Lee as much as we want Jessica Alba. This guy would be perfect. I think Ichiro has to move to Center and you slam Raul and Lee on the corners. You can then bring up Chris "Doyle" Snelling to ether DH or play a corner spot and give Everett his walking papers. This is a division the M's can win and I think they know that so lets hold our breath and hope they make the right move.
I’m fired up for this week it could be a really good one for M's Fans!
Singles night at the safe..........Ladies Holler at me
Friday, June 30, 2006
The Victory Sock
'Twas June the 15th when I was flying from Baltimore to the Emerald City. I was in the air when the Mariners lost to the A's again. Once again, the Athletics of Oakland had deflated the fun out of a recent Mariners hot streak. The loss knocked the M's six games below .500. I had gotten myself a little excited, but the A's took care of that quickly. How did the Mariners respond to my arrival in Seattle? With a victory of course. Then another. And another.
The Mariners ended up going 9-2 while I was in Seattle. Clearly my presence in Seattle had something to do with it. I couldn't leave could I? The Mariners might fall into a tailspin if that happened. Then Big Daddy came up with a brilliant plan. I could leave a part of myself behind. What could that be though? A piece of my flesh? That seemed a little harsh. Cut off some hair? Nah. Other people's hair is sorta nasty. Then we got it. A dirty sock. That way, some of my DNA would be left behind and I wouldn't have to sacrifice part of my body.
Of course, my mother (being the wonderful mother she is) had cleaned all of my clothes. I didn't have a dirty sock to leave behind. I acted quickly. I put a clean sock on and wore it while I packed my bags. And I left the sock behind. I got on the plane yesterday hoping it would pay off. And it did! A come from behind, late-inning victory that Jeff from Lookout Landing thinks allows us to take the M's seriously. So, without further ado, I give you...
The Mariners Victory Sock! You hear those footsteps Oakland? That's the Sock comin' for ya!!!!!!!!!
The Mariners ended up going 9-2 while I was in Seattle. Clearly my presence in Seattle had something to do with it. I couldn't leave could I? The Mariners might fall into a tailspin if that happened. Then Big Daddy came up with a brilliant plan. I could leave a part of myself behind. What could that be though? A piece of my flesh? That seemed a little harsh. Cut off some hair? Nah. Other people's hair is sorta nasty. Then we got it. A dirty sock. That way, some of my DNA would be left behind and I wouldn't have to sacrifice part of my body.
Of course, my mother (being the wonderful mother she is) had cleaned all of my clothes. I didn't have a dirty sock to leave behind. I acted quickly. I put a clean sock on and wore it while I packed my bags. And I left the sock behind. I got on the plane yesterday hoping it would pay off. And it did! A come from behind, late-inning victory that Jeff from Lookout Landing thinks allows us to take the M's seriously. So, without further ado, I give you...
The Mariners Victory Sock! You hear those footsteps Oakland? That's the Sock comin' for ya!!!!!!!!!
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
5 hunny!!!
.500
.500
.500
They are .500!!!
This is great, its been so long since this has happened, and I am entirely too fired up about it. I still don't know what to think, are they good? Are they just lucky? O r is it somewhere in between. I really don't know. They look good. But it may be a mirage, they may be trying to suck us in get our hopes up and then turn around and squash us just like they often do. I remain cautiously optimistic. I am having fun watching them again. I keep getting this feeling that hey we can win this with every game. I remember that feeling from 01 where every night I was like ya we have a better than 50-50 shot at winning this.
Tonight its Felix and a chance to go 1 up. Who better to take this large step than the cornerstone of your future. Let’s go kid get it done!
.500
.500
They are .500!!!
This is great, its been so long since this has happened, and I am entirely too fired up about it. I still don't know what to think, are they good? Are they just lucky? O r is it somewhere in between. I really don't know. They look good. But it may be a mirage, they may be trying to suck us in get our hopes up and then turn around and squash us just like they often do. I remain cautiously optimistic. I am having fun watching them again. I keep getting this feeling that hey we can win this with every game. I remember that feeling from 01 where every night I was like ya we have a better than 50-50 shot at winning this.
Tonight its Felix and a chance to go 1 up. Who better to take this large step than the cornerstone of your future. Let’s go kid get it done!
Thursday, June 22, 2006
Yo, Adrian!
The M's are hot. From May 30 through last night, they have won 14 out of their last 20 games. Even more impressive, their WOO - without Oakland - record is 14-3 during that stretch (that's an .823 WOOning percentage). WOO! Why May 30, Chris? That was, after all, a loss at Texas. Well, 20 is a nice round number, but, more importantly, that night began the Adrian Beltre Hitting Second Experiment. Entering that game, Beltre was hitting .221 with 2 HRs, 14 RBI, 17 runs scored, and 6 doubles over the M's first 53 games. During the last 20 game stretch, Beltre is hitting .314 with 5 HRs, 17 RBI, 21 runs scored, and 6 doubles. He still strikes out more than he walks, but he has drawn 9 walks and struck out 13 times while hitting second (0.692 walks per strikeout), while he drew only 13 walks compared to 40 strikeouts (0.325 walks per strikeout) before the Experiment began.
I think that there can be three explanations for this great stretch: (1) Beltre is heating up enough that his final numbers will look something more like the .275, 25 HR, 85 RBI season that we would have realistically expected from him. (2) This simply a hot stretch, and we can expect him to start sucking again soon. (3) There is something magical about the second spot in the order.
My guess is that somewhere between (1) and (2) lies the truth. His last two games - where he has gone 5 for 7 with a homer, 4 RBI, 6 runs scored, and 2 doubles - really skew the numbers quoted above. If you take those out, and assume that he was just fired up to see his old team, his average in the second spot goes back to .278 - which seems about right. And, if you were to extrapolate those numbers (not including the games in L.A.) out for 550 at-bats, you get: .278, 28 HRs, 90 RBI, and 104 runs scored - which also seems about like what we would expect. He is at 280 at-bats now, so if he gets to 550 (and, to be fair, he is on pace for 612 at-bats, so these predictions are a bit conservative), he has 270 at-bats left. If he stays on the same pace over those 270 at-bats, he would have 13 HRs, 44 RBI, and 51 runs scored left in him - bringing his totals for the season to .267, 20 HRs, 77 RBI, and 90 runs scored. Not bad. Not worth $65 million, but to be fair - not many people are.
Now, the magical lineup spot does seem to have some merit. Can it really be coincidence? I suppose there were signs that he was heating up before the move - he had hits in four straight games, and eight out of nine, before being move up to the second spot. But, what is really surprising, and counterintuitive, is that he is producing more runs from the second spot. Six out of the eight 2 RBI games (and, no - he hasn't had a game with more than 2 RBI all season) that he has had this season have come when he was hitting second. So, he has produced more runs with the eighth, ninth (which has been the pitcher the last two nights), and first spots hitting ahead of him than he did with the first, second, and third, or second, third, and fourth spots hitting in front of him. Some of the explanation would come from the fact that the team is hot in general. Or, maybe Travis was right - and he is seeing more fastballs with Ichiro on in front of him. But, maybe, just maybe, this means that Beltre is best in the second spot, and dropping him back to the middle of the order would be a mistake. Or, maybe the line-up needs to be shuffled completely, so that Beltre can hit lower, but still hit behind Ichiro and Betancourt, with Lopez and Sexson protecting him. What do the Magic Faithful think?
I think that there can be three explanations for this great stretch: (1) Beltre is heating up enough that his final numbers will look something more like the .275, 25 HR, 85 RBI season that we would have realistically expected from him. (2) This simply a hot stretch, and we can expect him to start sucking again soon. (3) There is something magical about the second spot in the order.
My guess is that somewhere between (1) and (2) lies the truth. His last two games - where he has gone 5 for 7 with a homer, 4 RBI, 6 runs scored, and 2 doubles - really skew the numbers quoted above. If you take those out, and assume that he was just fired up to see his old team, his average in the second spot goes back to .278 - which seems about right. And, if you were to extrapolate those numbers (not including the games in L.A.) out for 550 at-bats, you get: .278, 28 HRs, 90 RBI, and 104 runs scored - which also seems about like what we would expect. He is at 280 at-bats now, so if he gets to 550 (and, to be fair, he is on pace for 612 at-bats, so these predictions are a bit conservative), he has 270 at-bats left. If he stays on the same pace over those 270 at-bats, he would have 13 HRs, 44 RBI, and 51 runs scored left in him - bringing his totals for the season to .267, 20 HRs, 77 RBI, and 90 runs scored. Not bad. Not worth $65 million, but to be fair - not many people are.
Now, the magical lineup spot does seem to have some merit. Can it really be coincidence? I suppose there were signs that he was heating up before the move - he had hits in four straight games, and eight out of nine, before being move up to the second spot. But, what is really surprising, and counterintuitive, is that he is producing more runs from the second spot. Six out of the eight 2 RBI games (and, no - he hasn't had a game with more than 2 RBI all season) that he has had this season have come when he was hitting second. So, he has produced more runs with the eighth, ninth (which has been the pitcher the last two nights), and first spots hitting ahead of him than he did with the first, second, and third, or second, third, and fourth spots hitting in front of him. Some of the explanation would come from the fact that the team is hot in general. Or, maybe Travis was right - and he is seeing more fastballs with Ichiro on in front of him. But, maybe, just maybe, this means that Beltre is best in the second spot, and dropping him back to the middle of the order would be a mistake. Or, maybe the line-up needs to be shuffled completely, so that Beltre can hit lower, but still hit behind Ichiro and Betancourt, with Lopez and Sexson protecting him. What do the Magic Faithful think?
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
Legend of Zelda Hero, Plural
So, the M's won last night. Beltre hit a homer, and that's good for the Mariners. Brad Penny lost, and that's good for the Low End Theorists. I listened to a few innings on XM radio. Mike and I have extolled the virtues of XM radio, and how awesome it is that one can listen to any major league baseball game being played, and hear the home announcers for each team. Bob Uecker calling Brewers games. Jon Miller calling Giants games. You can even hear the Yankees go to unnecessary excess with about six people in the broadcast booth. So, last night it was beautiful to listen to Vin Scully calling the M's against the Dodgers. The man has been calling Dodgers games for 57 years. He has called three perfect games. There have only been seventeen perfect games ever, and only seven in the National League - and two of those were in 1880. At one point he was describing Ichiro's father giving him foot massages, and it was beautiful because it was Vin Scully. But, when he started talking about how Pat Gillick turned down a trade that would have brought Scott Rolen to the M's in exchange for Joel Pineiro, I threw up in my mouth a little.
Sunday, June 18, 2006
Lack of Links and Wind Tunnels
"They" say you learn something new everyday. Well, here's what I learned at today. Oh, I'm in Seattle by the way and was at both Friday and today's win. Ok so...
1) For whatever reason, this iBook G4 I'm using doesn't allow me to put in links to a post. So, if you're reading this at work, I apologize. No fun links to keep you from actually doing your job.
2) If you sit in the right (or I guess wrong) area at Safeco in JUNE, you will freeze your ass off. It was like sitting in a wind tunnel. People had blankets. I almost didn't bring in my hooded sweatshirt. Thank God I did. It's June Seattle. Seriously. I loved it though. So much better than the stifling heat I would be experiencing in Baltimore.
3) Richie Sexson's walk to the batter's box song is "Hypnotize" by Biggy Smalls. Am I the only one who thinks that's weird? I guess the whole Big Richie thing, and Biggy Smalls was big. Er something.
4) It's really fun to watch Barry Bonds strike out.
5) It's even more fun to watch Barry Bonds strike out three times.
6) It's the most fun to watch Barry Bonds strike out to end a game and complete a THREE GAME SWEEP!
7) My mother is still a little bitter about Griffey. You know, there really are a lot of people who don't like how Griffey left. And, rightly so. I will fully admit that I'm blindly loyal to my first real baseball hero. I think the M's should retire #24, and that if Griff isn't a first-ballot Hall of Famer, there's something wrong with baseball.
So, all in all, I learned a lot today. Let's update the "if the Mariners didn't have to play the Athletics" board:
Record vs. A's: 1-9
Record vs. the rest of baseball: 33-28.
9 games in NL West stadiums. They're keeping me interested. I have this feeling the A's are going to start to separate themselves from the rest of the division. But for now, the Mariners are making baseball fun to follow.
1) For whatever reason, this iBook G4 I'm using doesn't allow me to put in links to a post. So, if you're reading this at work, I apologize. No fun links to keep you from actually doing your job.
2) If you sit in the right (or I guess wrong) area at Safeco in JUNE, you will freeze your ass off. It was like sitting in a wind tunnel. People had blankets. I almost didn't bring in my hooded sweatshirt. Thank God I did. It's June Seattle. Seriously. I loved it though. So much better than the stifling heat I would be experiencing in Baltimore.
3) Richie Sexson's walk to the batter's box song is "Hypnotize" by Biggy Smalls. Am I the only one who thinks that's weird? I guess the whole Big Richie thing, and Biggy Smalls was big. Er something.
4) It's really fun to watch Barry Bonds strike out.
5) It's even more fun to watch Barry Bonds strike out three times.
6) It's the most fun to watch Barry Bonds strike out to end a game and complete a THREE GAME SWEEP!
7) My mother is still a little bitter about Griffey. You know, there really are a lot of people who don't like how Griffey left. And, rightly so. I will fully admit that I'm blindly loyal to my first real baseball hero. I think the M's should retire #24, and that if Griff isn't a first-ballot Hall of Famer, there's something wrong with baseball.
So, all in all, I learned a lot today. Let's update the "if the Mariners didn't have to play the Athletics" board:
Record vs. A's: 1-9
Record vs. the rest of baseball: 33-28.
9 games in NL West stadiums. They're keeping me interested. I have this feeling the A's are going to start to separate themselves from the rest of the division. But for now, the Mariners are making baseball fun to follow.
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